Bornin theGap

Sources

Every number sourced. Every gap documented.

Every number on this site comes from a public dataset or a government document. This page lists each figure, the source it is drawn from as cited on the page where it appears, and where to find the publisher. If a figure here does not hold up, tell us and we will correct it publicly.

Draft, September 2026. Figures marked "source to confirm" are on the site with a general citation only. Con-R is working through them one by one and this page will be updated as each is confirmed.

Publishers

  • Statistics Canada: Canadian Income Survey (food insecurity), Labour Force Survey, Canadian Community Health Survey, Web Data Service. statcan.gc.ca
  • Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI): wait times, National Health Expenditure Database. cihi.ca
  • Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC): Housing Market Information, rental market and vacancy data. cmhc-schl.gc.ca
  • Canada Revenue Agency: benefit schedules, Canada Child Benefit. canada.ca/en/revenue-agency
  • Parliamentary Budget Officer: costing and fiscal analysis. pbo-dpb.ca
  • Fraser Institute: Waiting Your Turn, wait times for health care in Canada, 2024 edition. fraserinstitute.org
  • PROOF, University of Toronto: food insecurity research. proof.utoronto.ca
  • Canada-Wide Early Learning and Child Care (CWELCC): federal-provincial agreements and provincial implementation documents. canada.ca, early learning and child care agreements

Figures on the home and issue pages

Childcare

  • 3,250 Saskatchewan children born January to March 2020, excluded from the renewed CWELCC kindergarten-age extension. Sources cited: Statistics Canada, CRA benefit schedules, CWELCC documentation, Saskatchewan Ministry of Education.
  • $3,900 to $5,400 per child for the final months of the school year; $5.6M to close the SK gap; $13.8M to $27.6M in downstream costs over two to three years. BITG analysis built on the sources above.
  • 14,950 children across Alberta (8,100), Saskatchewan (3,250), and Manitoba (3,600); $83.5M combined family burden; $20M to close; $121M absorbed by government over three years. Source to confirm: the post cites Statistics Canada, CIHI, CMHC, and CRA generally.
  • $1.01 to $1.45 in downstream government cost for every $1 the exclusion saved. BITG projection model, described on the Economic Predictions page.

Health transfers and wait times

  • $4.9B per year uncompensated health delivery cost across BC, AB, SK, and MB; $3.1B over five years in Saskatchewan. Sources cited: CIHI National Health Expenditure Database, Statistics Canada, federal Canada Health Transfer data, 2024.
  • 30 weeks average specialist wait nationally; 8.6 weeks benchmark; SK hip replacement 7.5+ months. Sources cited: Fraser Institute, Waiting Your Turn 2024; CIHI 2024.
  • 12.7 physicians per 1,000 in Saskatchewan vs 19.4 in Ontario; Manitoba rural emergency capacity down 23% since 2015. Source to confirm: the issue page states these without a citation; the explorer cites CIHI Wait Times 2025 and Statistics Canada for the Manitoba figure.

Food insecurity

  • 25.5% national food insecurity rate, 2024, third consecutive record; 30.9% Alberta; 30.6% Saskatchewan; 2.5 million children. Sources cited: Statistics Canada, Canadian Income Survey 2024; PROOF.

Housing

  • 14,000 prairie households per year functionally excluded from federal housing programs; Regina average rent up 34% since 2021; Saskatoon vacancy below 2%; First Home Buyer Incentive thresholds calibrated for $400,000+ markets. Sources cited: CMHC Housing Market Data, Statistics Canada, federal FHSA program documents, 2025. Source to confirm: specific CMHC tables for the Regina and Saskatoon figures.

Gambling revenue (blog)

  • $1.57 billion Alberta gaming revenue, fiscal 2023-24; 2.9% problem gambling rate in Saskatchewan and Manitoba; 20,335 electronic gaming machines in Alberta. Source to confirm: the post does not cite a document for these figures.

Figures in the four-province explorer

Each entry below is one section of the explorer on the Economic Predictions page, with the source line exactly as the explorer cites it.

British Columbia

  • 01 — Housing crisis: BC's housing crisis is invisible to federal policy Vancouver avg first home: $1,120,000 — $620,000 over the federal threshold. The cap hasn't been meaningfully updated in over a decade.; Rental vacancy in Vancouver: under 1% . Victoria: under 1.5%. Average rents rose over 40% since 2019.; BC does not report mental health wait times — in the province's own words, there is "no standardized definition" for collecting the data.
    Source as cited: CMHC Housing Market Data · Statistics Canada · Federal FHSA program · 2025
  • 02 — Healthcare waits: 29.5 weeks. 57% hip benchmark. No mental health data collected. Specialist wait: 29.5 weeks vs. 8.6-week benchmark — 20.9 weeks of avoidable delay per patient.; BC's health transfer gap: $428/person/year — $2.4 billion annually absorbed from the provincial budget.; BC stated it does not report mental health wait times because there is "no standardized definition" — a choice, not a limitation.
    Source as cited: CIHI 2024 · Fraser Institute Waiting Your Turn 2024 · Global News mental health investigation
  • 03 — Food & EI: 24.2% food insecure. 36% EI. High income doesn't mean food security. 24.2% of BC residents — over 1.2 million people — lived in food-insecure households in 2024.; Only 36% of unemployed BC workers receive EI — second-lowest nationally.; 52% of female lone-parent families in BC are food-insecure — consistent with the national crisis figure.
    Source as cited: Statistics Canada CIS 2024 · PROOF Food Insecurity Research · EI Coverage Survey 2024

Alberta

  • 01 — Food & income: Alberta leads Canada in food insecurity. A province of resource wealth. 30.9% of Albertans live in food-insecure households — the highest provincial rate in Canada.; 8.7% face severe food insecurity — skipped meals, days without food. Also the highest in Canada.; Alberta and New Brunswick have the highest rates of cost-related medication skipping nationally.
    Source as cited: Statistics Canada CIS 2024 · PROOF Food Insecurity Research · May 2025
  • 02 — EI gap: Pay in your whole career. Collect nothing when oil prices crash. Only 35% of unemployed Albertans receive EI — second-lowest nationally.; EI requires 420–700 insurable hours. Many oil patch contractors never accumulate sufficient hours in any single job.; The EI replacement rate is 55% of insurable earnings , capped at $668/week — well below Alberta's average industrial wage.
    Source as cited: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey 2024 · EI Coverage Survey · Parliamentary Budget Office
  • 03 — Healthcare: $1.3B absorbed. 49% hip benchmark. Rural waits years long. CHT per capita: $1,463. Actual Alberta cost: $1,744/person/year . Gap: $281/person annually.; Only 49% of Alberta hip replacement patients receive surgery within the 26-week benchmark.; Rural psychiatric waits in Alberta can exceed 9–12 months . No standardized provincial reporting exists.
    Source as cited: CIHI National Health Expenditure Database · Fraser Institute 2024
  • 04 — Pharmacare gap: Canada's pharmacare gap hits Alberta hardest. Alberta has the highest rate of cost-related medication skipping alongside New Brunswick.; Bill C-64 (Oct 2024) covers only contraceptives and diabetes . 7.5 million uninsured Canadians wait for phase two with no timeline set.; Canada is the only country with universal healthcare that does not include prescription drugs.
    Source as cited: UBC Centre for Health Policy Nov 2024 · Statistics Canada CCHS · CIHI 2024

Saskatchewan

  • 01 — Childcare gap: 3,250 children. One calendar technicality. $27.6M in downstream costs. ~ 3,250 Saskatchewan children born Jan–Mar 2020 excluded from $10/day care for the final months of the school year.; Per-family annual cost: $3,900–$5,400 . Total family burden: $12.7M–$17.6M .; Government's own program language: childcare access promotes workforce participation particularly for mothers . The exclusion does the opposite.
    Source as cited: Statistics Canada · CRA benefit schedules · CWELCC documentation · Saskatchewan Ministry of Education · March 2026
  • 02 — Healthcare waits: Longest hip waits in Canada. Children wait 112 days for mental health. Median hip replacement wait: over 7.5 months — worst in Canada. Only 55% within the 26-week benchmark.; Specialist wait: 37.2 weeks — 4.3× the 8.6-week benchmark.; Children referred for mental health wait a median of 112 days . A SK child psychiatrist described a teen on the waitlist for over two years .
    Source as cited: CIHI Wait Times 2025 · Fraser Institute 2024 · SK Health Authority · CBC 2023
  • 03 — Health transfer: $623M per year. $3.1B over five years. Absorbed quietly. Annual uncompensated delivery cost: $623 million . Five-year exposure: $3.1 billion .; SK's per-capita delivery gap of $519 is the largest of the four prairie provinces .; Canada's first ministers agreed in 2004 to reduce wait times. Twenty years later, SK's hip waits are the worst in the country.
    Source as cited: CIHI National Health Expenditure Database · Statistics Canada · Federal CHT data · 2024
  • 04 — Food & income: 30.6% food insecure. 38% EI. Every gap lands here. 30.6% of Saskatchewan residents live in food-insecure households — second in the country.; Only 38% of unemployed SK workers receive EI. Seasonal and agricultural work creates structural ineligibility.
    Source as cited: Statistics Canada CIS 2024 · PROOF · CRA · NRCan · 2024

Manitoba

  • 01 — Rural collapse: 23% of Manitoba's rural emergency capacity — gone since 2015. Rural ED capacity: −23% since 2015 . A human resource crisis driven by underfunded recruitment.; Manitoba absorbs $578 million per year — $413 per person above the CHT allocation.; Rural psychiatric waits: estimated 3 months to a year , but no standardized data published.
    Source as cited: CIHI Wait Times 2025 · Statistics Canada · Fraser Institute 2024
  • 02 — Healthcare gaps: 27.9 weeks. 60% hip benchmark. Mental health data: partial at best. Specialist wait: 27.9 weeks — 19.3 weeks of avoidable delay per patient.; Only 60% of MB hip replacement patients receive surgery within 26 weeks.; CIHI notes MB mental health data is "based on partial data coverage" due to missing contractor submissions.
    Source as cited: CIHI Wait Times 2025 · Fraser Institute 2024 · Manitoba Health Authority
  • 03 — Food & income: 26.2% food insecure. Rural costs compound every gap. 26.2% of Manitoba residents — approximately 380,000 people — in food-insecure households in 2024.; Food insecurity climbed from ~15% in 2019 — up 11 percentage points in five years.; EI covers 44% of unemployed Manitobans — 36 points below the program's intended 80% reach.
    Source as cited: Statistics Canada CIS 2024 · PROOF · CRA · NRCan · 2024

Figures in the healthcare tool

  • Specialist wait, weeks, by province: Fraser Institute, Waiting Your Turn 2024.
  • Hip and knee replacement within the 26-week benchmark and radiation therapy within 28 days: CIHI wait times, 2024.
  • Food insecurity by province: Statistics Canada, Canadian Income Survey 2024.
  • EI coverage of the unemployed: cited as the EI Coverage Survey. Source to confirm: year and table.
  • Psychiatrist wait, months: labelled in the tool as an estimate from various sources. Source to confirm, or the column comes out.